THE "ORACLE" FAILED

Greenspan Concedes Error on Regulation

"Facing a firing line of questions from Washington lawmakers, Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman once considered the infallible maestro of the financial system, admitted on Thursday that he “made a mistake” in trusting that free markets could regulate themselves without government oversight. "

Although he defended the use of derivatives in general, Mr. Greenspan, who left his post in 2006, told members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform that he was “partially” wrong in not having tried to regulate the market for credit-default swaps."

So they forgot about Moral Hazard

“I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms,” Mr. Greenspan said.

Referring to his free-market ideology, Mr. Greenspan added: “I have found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I have been very distressed by that fact.”

In his prepared remarks, Mr. Greenspan said he was in “a state of shocked disbelief” about the breakdown in the ability of banks to regulate themselves. He also warned about the economic consequences of the crisis, saying that he “cannot see how we will avoid a significant rise in layoffs and unemployment.” Consumer spending will decline, too, he said, adding that a stabilization of home prices would be necessary to bring the crisis to its end.

In his prepared remarks, Mr. Greenspan said he saw “no choice” but to impose legal quality requirements for certain types of securities, and added that other regulatory changes would have to be made.

But he still gestured toward his faith in free markets, however shaky it may have become. “It is important to remember, however, that whatever regulatory changes are made, they will pale in comparison to the change already evident in today’s markets,” he said. Those markets for an indefinite future will be far more restrained than would any currently contemplated new regulatory regime.

A little bit late, meanwhile, nobody can foresee the consequences of this financial turmoil

BAD MEMORY....

Argentina Makes Grab for Pensions Amid Crisis

BUENOS AIRES -- Hemmed in by the global financial and commodities bust, Argentina's leftist government found a novel way to scrape up the money to stay afloat: cracking open the piggybank of the country's private pension system.

President Cristina Kirchner proposed to nationalize the private pension system, which has about $30 billion in assets, a move that would provide the government with much of the cash it needs in the short term to avoid default for the second time this decade. But analysts said the plan reinforces Argentina's image as a renegade in financial circles and represents a repudiation of the system of private pensions that has been in vogue in developing countries.

What about consumers?

Budget Gaps
Economic turmoil of recent months has also dealt budget gaps to some other nations, notably oil-exporters Venezuela and Iran, but Argentina is doubly hurt. Because the Argentine government stiffed international creditors as recently as 2001, any attempt to return to the international credit markets in the coming year would be almost certain to fail especially now that banks and investors are allergic to anything that seems risky.

OPEC wanna cut the production

The government told Argentines its move to nationalize private pension funds was aimed at protecting investors from losses resulting from the global market turmoil. President Kirchner said in a speech: "The main member countries of the [Group of Eight] are adopting a policy of protection of the banks and, in our case, we are protecting the workers and retirees."

Protecting? but Is it not better to diversify? buying safe securities

Is this a good choice? What is behind of it?

But economists said the motive is to provide the government with about $5 billon in annual pension contributions that it needs to plug a gap in the financing next year and avert a second debt default. "They were in a tight situation and this was an accessible source of funds," said Buenos Aires economist Aldo Abram.

Ahh that's it

Opposition leaders vowed to contest it. Opposition leader Elisa Carrio vowed to resist, saying, "The government measures aren't designed to better the retirement system but rather to plunder the funds of the retirees." One pension-fund head suggested that contributors inundate the government with lawsuits. Even if they don't heed that call, the move also is expected to face legal challenges.

The same history

"With the [latest] announcement, the custom of violating the rules of the game has been repeated, which deepens the lack of confidence," political analyst Rosendo Fraga wrote in the Buenos Aires daily La Nacion.

Bye Bye Fully Funded?

The pension system in places like Argentina and Chile is much more free-market-oriented than in the U.S. The U.S. Social Security system is run by the government and is "pay as you go," meaning the government uses contributions from current workers to pay retirees. Latin American countries like Chile decided to give workers the option of creating individual retirement accounts run by private companies where workers would be forced to set aside money for their retirement - similar in some ways to a 401(k)-type account in the U.S.

Bernanke Is Fighting the Last War
"Everything works much better when wrong decisions are punished and good decisions make you rich."

By BRIAN M. CARNEY (Wall Street Journal)

Most people now living have never seen a credit crunch like the one we are currently enduring. Anna Schwartz, 92 years old, is one of the exceptions. She's not only old enough to remember the period from 1929 to 1933, she may know more about monetary history and banking than anyone alive. She co-authored, with Milton Friedman, "A Monetary History of the United States" (1963). It's the definitive account of how misguided monetary policy turned the stock-market crash of 1929 into the Great Depression.

Since 1941, Ms. Schwartz has reported for work at the National Bureau of Economic Research in New York, where we met Thursday morning for an interview. She is currently using a wheelchair after a recent fall and laments her "many infirmities," but those are all physical; her mind is as sharp as ever. She speaks with passion and just a hint of resignation about the current financial situation. And looking at how the authorities have handled it so far, she doesn't like what she sees.

Now, Alan Greenspan has issued an epilogue to his memoir, 'Time of Turbulence,' and it's about what's going on in the credit market," Ms. Schwartz says. "And he says, 'Well, it's true that monetary policy was expansive. But there was nothing that a central bank could do in those circumstances. The market would have been very much displeased, if the Fed had tightened and crushed the boom. They would have felt that it wasn't just the boom in the assets that was being terminated.'" In other words, Mr. Greenspan "absolves himself. There was no way you could really terminate the boom because you'd be doing collateral damage to areas of the economy that you don't really want to damage."

Ms Schwartz adds, gently, "I don't think that that's an adequate kind of response to those who argue that absent accommodative monetary policy, you would not have had this asset-price boom." Policies based on such thinking only lead to a more damaging bust when the mania ends, as they all do. "In general, it's easier for a central bank to be accommodative, to be loose, to be promoting conditions that make everybody feel that things are going well."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, of all people, should understand this, Ms. Schwartz says. In 2002, Mr. Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve Board governor, said in a speech in honor of Mr. Friedman's 90th birthday, "I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again."

"This was [his] claim to be worthy of running the Fed," she says. He was "familiar with history. He knew what had been done." But perhaps this is actually Mr. Bernanke's biggest problem. Today's crisis isn't a replay of the problem in the 1930s, but our central bankers have responded by using the tools they should have used then. They are fighting the last war. The result, she argues, has been failure. "I don't see that they've achieved what they should have been trying to achieve. So my verdict on this present Fed leadership is that they have not really done their job."

Latin America Can Weather the Storm
Every crisis is an opportunity.

According to Mary Anastasia O'Grady (Wall Street Journal), Latin american must take advantage of the global turmoil. Given 1990s economic reforms, most of Latin american countries are ready to face this financial crisis because they are showing high level of reserves and low inflation although exposed to commodity price volatility.


"A selling tsunami emanating from the U.S.-European panic has clobbered Latin currencies and stocks. The Mexican peso has lost more than 20% against the dollar since August and Mexico's Bolsa closed at a two-year low on Friday. Peru, Colombia and Chile are also getting slammed."

"Given the magnitude of the selloff, some observers may be surprised to learn that the banking systems of these countries are not infected with the financial bird flu spreading through the G-7. Rather, investors are piling out of Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Colombia in a flight to quality. They are also fleeing because of the credit squeeze, the end of the commodity boom, and a slowdown in rich-country growth that will reduce demand for the region's output. Growth is expected to slow in most of Latin America."

"Thanks to the reforms of the past two decades the most open Latin economies are in a much better position today than they were in the 1980s when Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker tightened credit to attack inflation. They should not be allowed to backslide. This is the time to accelerate liberalization with an eye toward greater economic flexibility."

"There is not much Latin America can do about the leadership vacuum in the U.S. or Europe. But it can anchor its own ship. Serious Latin economies -- obviously we don't mean Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Honduras or Bolivia -- have spent the past two decades preparing for such a moment.'

"To that end, the region has much work left to do. Brazil's entrepreneurs are burdened with punishing tax rates and complex regulation. Mexico restricts investment in energy, telecommunications and air travel, and in recent years it has increased protectionism. Colombia and Chile still fiddle with capital controls. Peru has insecure property rights, which discourage investment. Labor markets throughout the region are inflexible."

"Every crisis offers opportunities and this one is no different. The region's reformers have already done much heavy lifting. Why not seize the moment and finish the job?"

The Nobel Prize in Economics goes to...

Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University and an Op-Ed page columnist for The New York Times, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences on Monday.

...Mr. Krugman received the award for his work on international trade and economic geography. In particular, the prize committee lauded his work for “having shown the effects of economies of scale on trade patterns and on the location of economic activity.” ..

..He has developed models that explain observed patterns of trade between countries, as well as what goods are produced where and why. Traditional trade theory assumes that countries are different and will exchange different kinds of goods; Mr. Krugman’s theories have explained why worldwide trade is dominated by a few countries that are similar to each other, and why some countries might import the same kinds of goods that it exports..

..“There was something very beautiful about the old existing trade theory and its ability to capture the world in a surprisingly simple conceptual framework,” Mr. Krugman said. “And then I realized that some of the new insights coming through in industrial organization could be applied to international trade.”..

New York Times





The article mentioned is
Paul Krugman (1991) Increasing Returns and Economic Geography
Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 99, No. 3: pp. 483-499

Information for the Public

Scientific Background

Celebrations at Princeton














Paul Krugman and John Nash: Two Nobel Prizes

THE "DOWN" JONES

While the stock markets indexes continue falling, in the morning, Bush addressed to the American People. He said that urges financial markets and the broader American public to remain calm in the face of the global financial meltdown.

"we'll get through this together."

Peru’s cabinet in turmoil over scandal

By Naomi Mapstone in Lima
Published: October 10 2008 00:18 | Last updated: October 10 2008 00:18

Peru’s entire cabinet offered their resignations on Thursday following a scandal that has linked president Alan Garcia’s party with the granting of oil concessions to a favoured bidder.

Jorge del Castillo, prime minister, made the promise as he left Congress, after members of the opposition walked out in protest. Mr del Castillo said he felt it necessary to make the offer to defend ”the honour of this Cabinet, which has worked with honesty, austerity and dedication”.

Garcia’s approval rating had dropped to 19 per cent even before a local television station aired audio-taped conversations allegedly between Alberto Quimper, Petroperu(acute) director, and a member of the ruling APRA political party, Romulo Leon in which they agreed to favour Norwegian company Discover Petroleum in the granting of gas and oil lots.

The president immediately suspended the lots, and sacked Mr Quimper and Petroperu president Cesar Gutierrez, who denied involvement. Mr Quimper has since been arrested and police are looking for Mr Leon.

Mr Garcia also accepted the resignation of Juan Valdivia, energy and mining minister, although Mr Valdivia was not named in the tapes and denied he had anything to do, ”directly or indirectly” with the scandal.

Although the full cabinet offer to resign is unlikely to be taken up, Mr Garcia is under pressure to reshuffle his cabinet. Corruption is a hot-button issue in Peru, where the president has faced protests by workers who say they are not reaping the benefits of the country’s strong economic growth in recent years.

Transcriptions of the alleged conversation between Mr Quimper and Mr Leon have been splashed across the pages of local press, revealing a discussion about the tax implications of payments into Mr Leon’s account.

”… This year I have received … a quantity of money , and with it we have been paying many expenses. That money goes directly to my current account. What does that mean in terms of taxes,” Mr Leon is alleged to have said.

”How much has it been, $100,000? $200,000?,” Mr Quimper is alleged to have replied.

”More or less $100,000 a year, monthly,” Mr Leon said.

Discover Petroleum denied it had paid bribes. It said in a statement it had hired a local law firm to pre-qualify to bid for the lots, and Mr Quimper, who they were told was ”the best tax lawyer in Peru”, had been subcontracted by the firm. Mr Leon had been hired as a consultant to assist with pre-qualification.

The company said it had paid $60,000 between May and October to the law firm that hired Mr Quimper and $63,750 to Mr Leo for the licence application process.

Peru’s Congress has now voted to investigate all concessions granted since 2006. Discover Petroleum’s five lots were among 17 auctioned off in September.

Central Banks Cut Rates World-Wide





Esto debe ser historico. En una operacion coordinada el FED, ECB y el Bank of England han reducido sus tasas de interes de referencia. El "Federal Funds Rate" ya tenia una tendencia decreciente desde el año pasado ante las expectativas de recesion, causando la depreciacion del dolar. Desde entonces el FED habia optado por una politica mas flexible y/o mas discrecional, y abandonar la etiqueta de "implicit targeter". En cambio, el ECB y el Bank of England han abandonado la rigidez que da ser un "explicit targeter" para buscar mas flexibilidad.

Tambien China, Canada, Suiza y Suecia se unieron a este "global cut". Parece que los tres ultimos han abandonado tambien el "inflation targeting club"

Welcome to 'Moral Hazard'

Moral Hazard. It sounds like the name of a failed town in a Clint Eastwood western. We all live there now.

Until recently, "moral hazard" was heard only on the lips of insurance agents and over lunch in conservative think tanks. Both Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have uttered the phrase "moral hazard" in front of congressional committees to warn against excessive financial risk. Senators and members nod, look down at their cheat sheets and think, "Mmm, right, moral hazard."


CorbisNow, with big banks dropping like flies and Wall Street vaporizing amid a mortgage meltdown, every corner bar and hair salon is filled with experts on the perils of moral hazard. Everyone gets it: Cut risk down to next to nothing and some people do crazy things.

Borrowers across America took a dive for low- or no-down-payment mortgages buoyed by the Federal Reserve's low-risk interest rates. Wall Street sliced the mortgages thinner than prosciutto ham, "spreading risk," and sold pieces all over the world, where, like magic, they seemed to fatten balance sheets. The deal was so win-win that Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill and the rest of the world's mega-banks engorged on their own product. It was as if foie gras geese forced corn and fat down their own throats. The risk of exploding seemed to be nil.

For behind it all sat Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, running mortgage liquidity into the nation's neighborhoods like an open fire hydrant. Several years ago, when the Journal's editorial board met with Fannie Mae's top executives and pressed the issue of financial risks, we were told by way of ending the conversation that Fannie was merely fulfilling the "mandate of Congress" to spread home ownership across the land. Congress, of course, is a temple to moral hazard.

"Moral hazard" is an odd phrase. Its meaning isn't obvious though it does sound like something one ought to avoid. "Moral hazard" dates back hundreds of years in obscurity, but its use eventually settled inside the insurance business in the 19th century. The French call it risque moral.


Wonder Land columnist Daniel Henninger tells Kelsey Hubbard that discussions of responsibility and the financial crisis should be held in the context of the presidential debate. (Oct. 2)
Back then, it really was taken to mean that reducing risk too much exposed people to the hazard of poor moral judgments. If an insurer charged too little for a policy to replace farms in the English countryside, Farmer Brown might be less careful about cows knocking over oil lamps in the barn.

In time, the economists got their hands on "moral hazard," and the first thing they did was strip out the heavy moral freight to make the concept value-neutral. Now moral hazard became less about judgment and more about the economic "inefficiencies" that occur in riskless environments.

We're back to the original meaning. Losing tons of money for an institution is an economic inefficiency. Lose the nation's financial structure, however, and moral fingers get wagged.

John McCain and Barack Obama are ranting about greed. Congress is taking the air out of golden parachutes. Republicans in Congress are getting pushback from constituents on Main Street who object to "bailing out" banks and what's left of Wall Street.

With so much economic loss and ruin being booked on such a grand scale, it's normal to assign blame. Yes, politics ought to fight its way toward knowing how mortgage-backed securities led to this.

I'm wondering, though, if the U.S. hasn't arrived at a large Pogo Moment. With the greatest financial crisis since the Depression, have we finally met the enemy, and does it turn out that the enemy is us?

For all the wailing about the high price being paid now of ignoring manifest risk beneath the mortgage crisis, are we angry at bad decisions that must never be repeated, or just upset that it all blew up? Because if it's the latter, politicians will try to game the system again to get more risk-free benefits.

Even as it passes through the greatest moral-hazard demonstration in history, Congress this week approved, and President Bush signed into law, a $25 billion "loan" to the auto industry. Without a peep of objection from anyone.

Because no creditor will run the real risk of lending Detroit money, Washington will not only make another $25 billion liar loan but do it so the industry can somehow conjure up Congress's mandated alternative-fuel cars. Are we nuts? Absent the discipline of normal risk, why won't this blow up too?

This subject -- risk and political moral hazard -- should be at the center of our derailed presidential campaign and its debates. Liberals don't like to hear moral-hazard arguments raised against social-policy goals. The current mortgage nightmare, however, grew primarily from Congress's insistence on increasing home ownership by reducing its risks.

Barack Obama's core proposals on health insurance, trade policy and tax credits all seek to reduce an array of economic risks. John McCain's ideas on health, education and the tax code tilt toward "choice," or letting individuals make judgments about economic risk-taking.

Most of the time, moral hazard is simply academic. Not after this week. Our presidential candidates should have a talk about it.

Esto se les paso por la huacha a los funcionarios federales americanos. Obviamente este es una falla de mercado porque hay un problema de informacion, la informacion es asimetrica. En el "Principal-agent problem" hasta los mas dogmaticos saben que se tiene que regular, sobretodo en un mercado donde se juegan trillones de dolares.
El moral hazard tambien puede presentarse a nivel de paises como le paso a Argentina en el 2001. Despues de la farra fiscal, esperaba que el FMI lo salve, pero al final el FMI no lo salvo y cayo en una profunda crisis economica y politica

Bayly entrevistado por Federico Jiménez Losantos (Radio Cope)

Paulson after Bailout's rejection

Perú: Living the legend

Esta bacan este video promocional hecho por PROMPERU


PROMPERU: GASTRONOMIA PERUANA (PERUVIAN CUISINE)

Peru adheres to the OECD Declaration on International Investment

31/07/2008 - Peru has become the 41st adherent to the OECD Declaration on International Investment and Multinational Enterprises, in recognition of its impressive progress in pursuing investment policy reforms to improve the country's business climate and reduce poverty. These initiatives have helped drive robust economic growth and vibrant foreign direct investment flows.

As an adherent to the Declaration, Peru commits to treating foreign investors in the same way as domestic investors and to promoting responsible business conduct. The country in turn benefits from similar assurance from the other adherents to treat Peruvian investors abroad fairly and to encourage their multinational enterprises operating in the country to contribute to economic, social and environmental progress.

Implementation of the Declaration also involves the establishment by Peru of a National Contact Point to be located in Peru’s Private Investment Promotion Agency (ProInversión) responsible for promoting observance of the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, an integral part of the OECD Declaration. As an adherent, Peru will participate in the work of the OECD Investment Committee with the ten other emerging economies that are adherents to the Declaration: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, Estonia, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia.

Peru’s adherence provides further international support for the principles of sound investment policy and corporate responsibility laid down in the Declaration.

Peru's adherence is the result of a thorough review of its investment policies by the OECD to be published in autumn 2008.

For more information, journalists should contact Blanka Kalinova, OECD Investment Division (tel. + 33 1 45 24 89 23).

Peru: The ABC of investment grade*


Info provided by the
American Chamber of Commerce of Peru (AmCham Peru)


In the past days Peru has received much to its surprise and satisfaction the qualification of investment grade, given by the prestigious risk qualifying agency Standard & Poor´s, adding itself to the one given by Fitch Ratings in the recent past months, these plus the favorable development of our economy, are all contributing factors for the consolidation of the Peruvian image as an ideal destination for investments. Let me explain you how.

But first, it is necessary to remember that investment grade is nothing more than the reflection of the perception of international agents in reference to the capability of a country to pay its financial obligations on a timely fashion. And in a globalized world economically integrated, it is essential for investors to rely on accurate sources of information – like the ones issued by these risk qualification agencies - in order to take correct business decisions when choosing the destination of their investment and their capital.

In this manner, the diverse risk levels established by qualifying industries internationally renowned like Moody’s; Standard & Poor’s y Fitch Ratings, are huge especially for a country because they can determine the competitive financial interest rates that have the right impact to attract the right investments. In order for these qualifications to be issued, independently from individual methodologies, the agencies usually monitor the evolution of macroeconomic, political and institutional indicators, and proceed to classify the countries with debt in three big groups depending on the level of risk: investment grade, speculative grade and highly speculative grade. Hence, by being qualified as a country with investment grade, Peru now belongs to the category of countries that have better perspectives of payment and less risk, which in turn, opens a world of new possibilities before our eyes.

This important acknowledgement that only certain Latin American countries have, countries like Mexico, Chile and El Salvador, responds to the correct handling of the macroeconomic by several governments that knew to give continuity to an economic model based in fiscal and monetary discipline as well as market opening. Nevertheless, the aggressive pre-payment of the external debt done by the minister Carranza and the recent advances in trying to reduce poverty may be the reasons why our country has gained such recognition.

Therefore, dear reader, in spite of the happiness that these type of recognition gives us, it is important to admit that there is still an agency that not only doesn’t consider us at the state of investment grade but places us two steps down of such ladder, due to economic factors as the high level of dollarization of the economy, and others like the weakness of our institutions, which by the way, we should confront once and for all in order to increase our competitiveness as well as to consolidate sustained growth and abolish poverty and inequality.

Monday, May 05, 2008
Peru Upgrade Follows Strong Growth

REASON TO CELEBRATE: Peruvians should celebrate the country's impressive macro achievements and wish President Alan Garcia (above) the best of luck, the author says. (Photo: Dante Zegarra/Peru President's Office)


PERU MACRO RESULTS. CLICK TO ENLARGE


The investment grade of Peru by Fitch ratings follows years of solid growth.

Gobierno de Alan García aprovecha crecimiento sólido y grado de inversión entregado este año por Fitch:
Perú sigue cosechando buenos resultados y desplaza a Chile en ranking de riesgo país
Desde el 2 de mayo que el EMBI chileno dejó de ser el más bajo de Sudamérica. Perú quiere ser el primero en la región.

La competencia que está llevando a cabo Perú es "deportiva y amistosa", según palabras del propio Mandatario peruano.



FRANCO VERA Y FRANCISCA URROZ

El Presidente Alan García lo dijo la semana pasada: "Queremos ganarle, queremos ser mejores". Sus declaraciones se referían a Chile, sus instituciones y su economía, en una reunión frente a empresarios de Latinoamérica y de la Unión Europea.

Tras demostrar el aprecio y la admiración que sentía por cómo se han hecho las cosas en nuestro país, el Presidente peruano destacó que Perú no se va a quedar de brazos cruzados tras los triunfos conseguidos. Y es que los últimos meses han sido sólo de buenas noticias desde que Fitch le otorgara "grado de inversión" a este país de casi 30 millones de habitantes.

La última sorpresa de Perú fue su índice EMBI, que calcula a diario el banco de inversiones JP Morgan y que mide el riesgo de los países frente a la economía de EE.UU. (ver recuadro), cifra que desde hace años era liderada en la región por Chile -debido a su baja deuda y alta estabilidad- junto a México -país que a veces tiene menor riesgo país que Chile.

Ayer, Perú tenía 151 puntos de riesgo y Chile 158, y llegó a estar con 12 puntos menos de riesgo el 13 y 14 de este mes.

Buenos competidores

La "competencia deportiva y amistosa" que está llevando a cabo Perú, según palabras del propio Alan García, se demuestra con creces al analizar las cifras de este país, que el año pasado tuvo una tasa de crecimiento de 8,3% en su economía, la mayor desde 1994.

Otra prueba para ver cómo va la competencia a la que hace referencia García, es analizar el último índice de competitividad mundial que presentó la semana pasada la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad de Chile, según el respetado estudio que realiza el Institute of Managemet Development (IMD) de Suiza. La versión 2008 del ranking incluyó por primera vez a Perú, el que tuvo un gran debut en el puesto 35, por sobre países como Colombia (41), México (43) o Brasil (50).

Lo más interesante es que, de entrada, se ubicó a sólo 9 lugares del ranking obtenido por Chile, quien se mantuvo 26 por segundo año consecutivo, luego de caer desde el lugar 18 que ocupó en 2005.

Todos suben y Perú baja su riesgo

Expertos que analizan el riesgo país (EMBI) explican que hay factores razonables para que Chile no se preocupe por estar ganando puntos de riesgo, pues desde julio del año pasado todos los países emergentes han tenido un aumento en el Riesgo País.

Pese a todo, Chile ha logrado mantenerse entre los que tienen el riesgo más bajo de la región, pero se ha visto afectado por la poca liquidez de sus papeles: la deuda es pequeña y está en manos de inversionistas que no van a salir a venderla. Esta falta de movimiento del dinero chileno es "castigada" por el EMBI.

Perú, en cambio, sigue teniendo una alta deuda, pero ha hecho las cosas bien, mejorando sus términos de intercambio y conservando un crecimiento sostenido. Eso es premiado en el riesgo país. Ahora lo importante (dicen los analistas) es que logre sostener este buen momento.

Riesgo país

Hay distintas formas de medirlo. Una de las más usadas es la fórmula del Banco de inversiones JP Morgan, conocida como EMBI. Esta forma calcula el diferencial (conocido también como "spread") que existe entre la tasa de interés de los bonos que emite un país determinado (en dólares) y la del bono del Tesoro de EE.UU., la base de comparación. A mayor diferencial, mayor es el riesgo.

ENCIFRAS

8,7%
fue el crecimiento económico de Perú en 2007. Chile alcanzó un crecimiento de 5,1%.

35
fue el puesto en el que debutó Perú en el Ranking de Competitividad 2008, según el estudio del IMD (Suiza). Chile se ubicó a sólo 9 lugares, en el puesto 26.

37%
rentó la Bolsa de Valores de Lima en 2007. Con esto se alzó como la segunda bolsa más rentable de Latinoamérica, sólo superada por la Bolsa de Sao Paulo (42%).

Fuerte expansión y baja inflación son sus cartas

EL MAYOR CRECIMIENTO DE LA REGIÓN

Perú sería este año el país de Latinoamérica con la mayor tasa de crecimiento, según el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), el que proyecta un 7%, bastante por encima del promedio, apenas por sobre el 4% que se ha calculado para la región. También, el Banco Interamericano del Desarrollo (BID) espera que Perú obtenga un crecimiento de 8% durante el período 2008.

Los buenos precios internacionales de los commodities han ayudado a Perú a mantener una importante tasa de crecimiento, destacándose el sector de la minería, motor de parte importante de su economía.

SE RECOMIENDA INVERTIR

Ése debería ser el letrero de las entradas fronterizas de este país. Fitch fue la primera clasificadora de riesgo que otorgó el "Grado de Inversión" a este país, luego de lo cual llegaron rumores de que varias de las otras grandes agencias de calificación (como Standard & Poor's o Moody's) ya tendrían sus ojos bien puestos en Perú. Fue entonces cuando llegó el turno para Brasil, pero esta vez la calificación de grado de inversión la entregó Standard & Poor's, lo que incrementó los rumores sobre Perú y un probable mejoramiento de rango por parte de otras calificadoras.

Es eso lo que están haciendo muchos inversionistas chilenos, quienes apuestan sus fichas hacia el sector agrícola peruano, siguiendo por las inversiones inmobiliarias y, por supuesto, sin dejar de lado las inversiones financieras.

PISÁNDOLE LOS TALONES A CHILE

En sólo 3 años (entre 2005 y 2007), nuestros vecinos han logrado tres acuerdos comerciales. El primero de ellos fue firmado en 2005 con Tailandia (TLC), con miras de entrar al mercado asiático. Posteriormente, en 2006 se firmó un acuerdo de complementación con Chile, y en 2007 el Congreso de EE.UU. les aprobó un TLC. La próxima meta es la Unión Europea. Ayer se dieron plazo de un año para obtenerlo.

Y en Argentina... cae la confianza de los consumidores

Los argentinos al parecer no ven con buenos ojos su economía. Algunos inversionistas han retirado sus posiciones y la confianza de los consumidores trasandinos cayó a su peor nivel en cinco años.

¿La razón? El temor de un posible "corralito", situación que los economistas descartan. La confianza de los consumidores cayó 11,6% en mayo, acumulando un retroceso de 23,8% en los últimos 12 meses, según informó la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. La caída del índice se suma al hecho de que la semana pasada, y a raíz del conflicto agrario, 7 de cada 10 ahorristas argentinos a los que se les venció el depósito bancario en pesos a plazo fijo habrían comprado dólares.

Para Enrique Álvarez, de Idea Global, la economía argentina está presionada por el conflicto agrario y las tasas de inflación, ya que hay un divorcio entre lo que el mercado estima y lo que anuncia el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (Indec).

Según Pablo Salcedo, de Compass, el hecho de que la autoridad argentina haya decidido manipular el dato inflacionario explica la baja en la confianza. "Si la cifra dice una cosa, pero la gente percibe otra, es entendible el deterioro", explica.

"Argentina está en una situación más benévola que hace unos años. Tiene reservas internacionales altas, una banca sana y un superávit fiscal (...) pero cuando hay inquietud, la gente actúa y después pregunta", argumenta Alberto Bernal, analista para Latinoamérica de Bear Stearns.

Para el economista Tomás Flores, el temor de una nueva crisis explica el momento por el que atraviesa Argentina, pero coincide en que la situación es distinta. "Hoy es menos real que haya un corralito nuevamente", sostiene.

ANÁLISIS EN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL B 11

The Next to Notch an Upgrade?
Peru, Russia Could Follow
Brazil's Higher RatingBy JOANNA SLATERMay 12, 2008; Page C2
Getting moved up -- or down -- in the sovereign-rating hierarchy can have a profound impact on stock and bond markets in developing countries.

These days, there is a distinct divide within emerging markets. Some are winning kudos for their economic policies and seem ready to leap up the ladder of credit quality. Others appear increasingly vulnerable to the effects of the credit crunch and may be poised for a slide.



Last month, Brazil vaulted into the ranks of countries whose external debt is considered "investment grade," a momentous occasion for a country that less than a decade ago was gripped by financial crisis. Although the move was anticipated, it sent Brazilian shares to an all time-high.

The next country in line to receive an upgrade on its sovereign rating could be Peru. "That's the one that everybody is focused on," says Joyce Chang, global head of emerging-markets strategy at J.P. Morgan Chase.

Fitch Ratings has already judged Peru's external debt to be investment grade, but its larger counterparts, Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service, have yet to follow suit. An S&P analyst said in April it may upgrade Peru to investment-grade status later this year.

Clinching that status carries a host of benefits, because some institutional investors have restrictions on how much they can allocate to places that aren't considered investment grade.

Propelled by exports of raw materials, Peru's economy is expected to grow 7% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, compared with a little over 4% for Latin America as a whole. In recent years Peru has greatly reduced its overall level of debt and now depends only modestly on financing from overseas. "It's a little country that's working like a clock," says Guillermo Mondino, head of emerging-markets research at Lehman Brothers.

Russia is another country that could merit a positive change in status, say some investors. "Their fundamentals are so strong, and they've been so prudent with fiscal policy, that economically they should be upgraded," says Thomas Cooper, who helps manage $6 billion in emerging-market debt at GMO LLC. Russia's external debt is already investment grade, but ratings agencies are reviewing the possibility of moving it a notch higher, potentially to a coveted A rating.

By contrast, as the credit crunch has intensified this year, ratings agencies have alerted a host of countries that their sovereign-credit quality is at risk of slipping.

In the past two months, S&P has added Kazakhstan, Turkey, Hungary and Romania to the list. All four are affected in varying degrees by tighter borrowing conditions worldwide, because their governments or banks depend on overseas financing.

"The global credit squeeze is more severe, and likely to prove more prolonged, than anticipated," S&P noted late last month in its warning on Kazakhstan's rating.

Another country that risks a downgrade: Argentina. It is struggling with accelerating inflation and recently faced a series of protests by farmers. The resignation of the country's economy minister after just five months on the job is part of an ongoing struggle over economic policy.

The minister's departure prompted S&P to change its outlook on the country's sovereign rating to negative from stable. "The instability there has picked up quite significantly," says Mr. Mondino of Lehman.

Lima a la carta

De la mano del consagrado chef Gastón Acurio y del ultra chic Rafael Osterling recorrimos los restoranes más deliciosos de Lima. Estos son sus datos para probar las mejores recetas criollas, la nueva cocina de autor, los sándwiches y, desde luego, los cebiches más sabrosos de la capital culinaria de Sudamérica.

Texto: Amalia Torres desde Lima, Perú. (Domingo El Mercurio, 11/05/2008)

En el taller de cocina de Gastón Acurio, todos los días se crea un plato nuevo. Ahora mismo, mientras hablamos, un cocinero trae un sándwich de unos quince centímetros con carne, plátano frito y otros vegetales que no se alcanzan a distinguir, antes de que Acurio le dé un buen mordisco y diga que sí, que el invento resultó, que ahora lo pruebe el resto del equipo. Creador del afamado Astrid & Gastón, de la cebichería La Mar y responsable de internacionalizar la comida peruana, Gastón Acurio saca ahora un trozo de cuello de alpaca de una olla, su último hallazgo. Y más allá prueban helado de coca.

Pero Acurio no es el único que está innovando. El año pasado en el foro gastronómico de Gerona, España, se decretó la comida peruana como "un auténtico paraíso de la cocina de fusión", y tanto el New York Times como el Washington Post, han aplaudido la nueva carta limeña. Según Rafael Osterling, dueño y chef del glamoroso restorán Rafael, este boom se debe a que la cocina está profesionalizándose. Por eso, hoy aterrizar en Lima es sinónimo de comer –sin exagerar–, los mejores platos de su vida. Pero cabe una advertencia: si usted está a dieta, o es de esas personas que alega si la comida tiene una pizca de ají, mejor no siga leyendo.

CEBICHERÍAS

Clásico del mar Cuando uno le pregunta a Gastón Acurio por su plato favorito su respuesta es inmediata: cebiche de pejerrey. Y si él lo dice, es para creerle. Por eso nada mejor que partir comiendo en su local, la ondera La Mar. "Esta cebichería revolucionó todo. Es una cocina contemporánea, que experimenta en técnicas, algo que antes no se hacía en Perú, porque el 90 por ciento de los propietarios de cebicherías no son chefs profesionales, como Gastón", dice Rafael Osterling. Acá, tanto la gente linda de Lima, como los turistas repletan las mesas, y por eso la mejor opción es ir muy temprano o pasadas las 3 de la tarde. Pero sin importar la hora, no pecar de gula es una tarea difícil desde que se pone un pie en La Mar. No sólo porque al pasar por la barra va a ver cómo preparan frescos sashimis y tiraditos, sino porque en vez de pan, a su mesa llevarán plátanos, yucas y distintos tubérculos fritos. Una tentación. Seguramente no puede esperar por probar el cebiche, pero no olvide que hay algunos datos que debe manejar si no quiere delatarse como turista inexperto. Primero, debe saber que este plato se come con cuchara para poder disfrutar de la leche de tigre, como se llama al jugo que deja en el fondo. Segundo, el camote no se mezcla en el mismo bocado con los otros ingredientes, sino que se come aparte, para que su dulzor suavice el ácido del limón y el picante del rocoto. Y tercero, en Perú, las cebicherías sólo abren a mediodía porque antiguamente se creía que en la noche caía mal, y hoy la tradición se respeta. Sabiendo esto puede elegir libremente, aunque nuestras sugerencias van por el cebiche mixto, y el cebiche nikkei (10 dólares cada uno), que logra un toque dulzón inigualable gracias a aceites orientales. Especialista en pescados y mariscos, La Mar también ofrece tiraditos de pejerrey (10 dólares) y causas con centolla, atún, o langostinos, por nombrar algunas (entre 10 y 12 dólares). Para beber, no puede dejar de pedir el Chicha Punch, una invención de este restorán que combina chicha morada (jugo típico hecho de choclo morado), con pisco, almíbar de piña, cherry brandy y un toque de limón (6 dólares). Es refrescante y especial para el mediodía. Además, no debería irse sin probar el cremoso y adictivo derrumbado de chirimoya, o el bizcocho con canela, manjar, crema y piña caramelizada (6 dólares cada uno). ¿Le dio hambre? La buena noticia es que La Mar abrirá dentro de dos meses en Vitacura, y ya no será necesario viajar para comer el mejor cebiche de su vida.

Otro imperdible según nuestros guías culinarios es Chez Wong. Se trata de la casa del chef Javier Wong que, sólo luego de reserva telefónica con al menos un día de anticipación, lo atenderá con pescados recién sacados del mar. "Son tres mesas y es un solo tema: el lenguado. Tú entras y él saca unos lenguados gigantes, y cuando te sientas te prepara un cebiche. No hay carta, menú, nada. Luego te pregunta si quieres un segundo plato. Y saca una sartén, y según la inspiración del momento te inventa un plato para ti. Es una experiencia fascinante, de culto", afirma Acurio. El cebiche en Chez Wong vale 16 dólares. Ahora, si prefiere algo más relajado y económico, pero igualmente sabroso, La Red es la opción. A sólo tres cuadras de La Mar, el ambiente sencillo invita a la extendida sobremesa. La carta ofrece causas de pulpo al olivo por 5 dólares, y un abundante saltado de conchas por 9. LA MAR Dirección: Av. del Mar 770, Miraflores. Teléfono: (51–1) 421 3365. Horario: de 12 a 17 horas.


CHEZ WONG Dirección: Enrique León García 114, La Victoria. Teléfono: (51–1) 470 6217. Horario: desde las 12 horas. La reserva es fundamental. LA RED Dirección: Av del Mar 391, Miraflores. Teléfono: (51–1) 441–1026. Horario: de 12 a 17.30 horas. El cebiche se come con cuchara para poder disfrutar de la leche de tigre, es decir, del jugo. INSPIRACIÓN DE AUTOR: La fusión de los sabores Los nuevos restoranes de autor también son una buena excusa para viajar a Lima. Rasgos franceses, tai, indios y peruanos, entre otros, se encuentran en la carta del Rafael. Por fuera, su decoración minimalista ni siquiera incluye un cartel, sólo el nombre escrito discretamente en los vidrios del restorán. Pero eso no impide que se llene, sobre todo en las noches, de jóvenes profesionales que vienen a cenar o a disfrutar de su bar. El ruido obliga a subir la voz pero a nadie parece importarle. Para olvidarse de la bulla, lo mejor es partir con el pulpito a la grilla con salsa chimichurri de pimientos braseados, aceitunas kalamata y ajos confitados (13 dólares), o las conchas horneadas en mantequilla y ajo crocante (13 dólares). Le aseguramos, no se arrepentirá. De fondo, el cabrito de leche horneado, con salsa de miel, tacu tacu (mezcla de arroz con frijoles que se tuesta sobre una sartén), plátanos fritos y arroz (18 dólares) es sublime. Se trata de un cabrito de cuatro meses que va al horno por dos horas, y luego de empaquetarse al vacío se hace cocer por seis horas más. Todo para terminar deshaciéndose en su boca. Para beber puede tentarse con un generoso y nada de dulce pisco sour (6 dólares), o atreverse con la barra del Rafael, que va desde Martini de maracuyá, hasta el coca sour, un pisco macerado durante un mes en hojas de coca, por lo que adquiere su aroma y tono verde. Si aún puede seguir comiendo, no deje de probar el tembloroso sponge de chocolate con emulsión de cacao, frambuesas rostizadas y helado de leche y miel (9 dólares), o los ravioles de mango con espuma de lúcuma, frescura de maracuyá, burbujas de avellana y sorbete de manzana verde (8 dólares). La Gloria es otro imperdible. Su público promedio bordea los 50 años, y su fuerte son los platos "atemporales", como la tortilla de patatas o los riñoncitos al jerez (12 dólares). "En pocos lados siguen sirviendo el estofado de cola de buey (19 dólares)", confiesa Osterling, aunque recuerda que también las creaciones más novedosas son de altísima calidad. ¿Un ejemplo? El lomo a la parrilla con una delicada salsa de concha, acompañado de puré de brócoli, con un toque de espuma de mar y crocante de pimienta roja (18 dólares). Tan famoso se ha vuelto La Gloria, que le recomendamos reserve antes de partir de Santiago. El Scena también tiene una carta fusión aunque destaca aún más por su moderno diseño.

RAFAEL Dirección: Av. San Martín 300, Miraflores. Teléfono: (51–1) 242 4149. Horario: De 12 a 17 horas. Y desde las 20 horas en adelante.

LA GLORIA Dirección: Atahualpa 201, Miraflores. Teléfono: (51–1) 445 5705. Horario: De 13 a 16 horas, y de 20 horas a la medianoche.

SCENA Dirección: Fco. de Paula Camino 280, Miraflores. Teléfono: (51–1) 445 9688. Horario: De 12.30 a 16 horas, y de 19.30 a las 0.30. El coca sour es un pisco macerado durante un mes en hojas de coca, así adquiere su aroma y tono.

ALTA COCINA PERUANA: Reinventar las recetas criollas Aprovechar los ingredientes propios del país para crear platos únicos es lo que ofrecen los restoranes de la alta cocina peruana. Malabar, de Miguel Schiaffino, por ejemplo, rescata productos de la selva y otros altiplánicos, para lograr una comida de sabor internacional. Para partir, un pan cortado muy fino, conocido como rulero, con queso mantecoso, tomate de árbol y jamón de alpaca (5 dólares), o un rocoto confitado relleno de morcilla y arroz (6 dólares). Si quiere probar las pastas, no deje de comer los tortellini de arracha (12 dólares), un tubérculo parecido al camote, servidos encima con raíz de apio. Su sabor y textura es inigualable. En los postres, la sugerencia es la degustación (10 dólares), que incluye arroz con leche, suspiro limeño, alfajor con manjar blanco, y picarones con helado de chancaca. Ideal para no quedarse con gusto a poco. Y si después de la buena mesa le dan ganas de fumar, pues la carta también incluye una amplia variedad de puros. El restorán gourmet Fiesta es otro imperdible según Osterling y Acurio. Se trata de comida norteña reinventada, nacida en Chiclayo, pero según los entendidos, mejorada en Lima. La raya preparada en todas sus formas es un infaltable de la casa, y un buen ejemplo es la tortilla (8 dólares). También hay patitas de cerdo acompañadas de salsa de vinagreta (9 dólares), y el clásico lomo saltado, con papas fritas y arroz.

MALABAR Dirección: Camino Real 101, San Isidro. Teléfono: (51–1) 440 5200. Horario: de 12.30 a 16 horas y de 19.30 a medianoche.
FIESTA Dirección: Av. Reducto 1278, Miraflores. Teléfono: (51–1) 242 9009. Horarios: desde las 12.30 a las 22.30 horas.
PICADAS DE BARRIO: Para sentirse peruano Los pequeños y más baratos restoranes de barrio siguen siendo una institución entre los limeños. Se los conoce como "huariques", y son tan famosos, que Acurio confiesa que es frecuente que camine hasta el sencillo pero sabrosísimo Café Tostado. No le importa que el piso sea de cemento, ni que haya que compartir los mesones con desconocidos. Él va sagradamente por el menú, que puede variar desde ravioles caseros, hasta menestrón (el plato del día cuesta 4 dólares). Claro que lo más cotizado es el conejo a la naranja, "Un must", para Rafael Osterling. Con conejos criados por su propio dueño y servido junto a camote y una salsa agridulce, la recomendación es llegar con hambre. El plato cuesta 10 dólares y puede fácilmente compartirse entre dos. Mi Perú es otro secreto de Osterling. "¡El concentrado de cangrejo está de muerte! Se trata de una sopa con su carnita, que tiene el sabor picante y de las especies", dice Rafael. La atención es coloquial y el ambiente, de barrio. El plato sólo le costará 9 dólares, pero lo dejará con ganas de seguir descubriendo huariques peruanos. CAFÉ TOSTADO Dirección: Nicolás de Piérola 222, Barranco. Teléfono: (51–1) 247 7133. Horario: de 12 a 19 horas.

MI PERÚ: Dirección: Av. Lima 861, Barranco. Teléfono: (51–1) 247 7682. Horario: de 12 a 17.30 horas.

SANDWICHERÍAS: Perú entre panes Tan imperdonable como estar en Lima y no comer un cebiche, es no atreverse con los sándwiches locales. "Yo recomendaría a eso de las 11 de la mañana ir a la Antigua Taberna Queirolo a sentir el sándwich peruano con una cervecita", afirma Gastón Acurio. Con 127 años de existencia, la Taberna es uno de los locales más antiguos de Lima, y un buen tentempié para quienes visitan el Museo Arqueológico, pues queda sólo a una cuadra. El sándwich que motiva la peregrinación a este local es el de jamón del país. Se trata de una sabrosa carne que se ha dejado cocer por horas, y que se acompaña con cebolla morada cortada pluma y ají. Este soberbio y sencillo sándwich puede disfrutarse por un poco menos de 3 dólares. Puede pedirlo para llevar, aunque la recomendación es sentarse en la barra o en sus mesas y mirar las fotografías de la Lima de comienzos del siglo pasado que adornan el local. Otra alternativa, es la moderna sanguchería de Gastón Acurio, Pasquale Hnos. Los seis locales de esta cadena de comida rápida buscan rescatar los sabores propios del Perú y su fama hace que se repleten –sobre todo entre la 13 y las 14 horas–, de familias y ejecutivos. Según nos confesó Acurio, el próximo año, ya piensan deleitar a los chilenos con estos sándwiches. Un pan que no puede dejar de probar es el de lomo saltado (5 dólares), que viene con cebolla frita, tomates, ají amarillo, pimentón asado y queso fundido. También hay otros como el de chicharrón, que es cerdo confitado servido con su jugo, o el de lechón horneado (desde 3 dólares), igualmente buenos. Aquí las papas fritas se han cambiado por las sabrosísimas boliyucas, el plátano frito y el camote, y en vez de ketchup y mayonesa, puede encontrar crema de rocoto o salsa huancaína. Todo bien peruano, pero con sabores amigables hasta para los paladares más mañosos. "Nuestra lucha como cocineros pasa por hacer que lo que nosotros somos tenga una presencia en el mundo. Si ya comiste ketchup 30 años, ahora vas a comer huancaína. Esa es la idea", dice Acurio.

ANTIGUA TABERNA QUEIROLO Dirección: San Martín 1090, Pueblo Libre. Teléfono: (51–1) 460 0441. Horario: de 9 a 23 horas.
PASQUALE HNOS. Dirección: Sus seis locales se pueden ver en la página www.pasqualehnos.com.pe. Teléfono: (51–1) 243 3100. Horario: Desde las 8.30 horas. Datos prácticos LLEGAR A la ciudad de Lima vuelan Gol, Lan y Taca, desde 209 dólares más impuestos. DORMIR Miraflores Park Hotel: El más lujoso de Lima, ubicado frente al Malecón de la Reserva, en el exclusivo sector de Miraflores. Dobles desde 435 dólares. Av. Malecón de la Reserva 1035. Tel (51–1) 242 3000; www.mira–park.com. NM Lima Hotel: Hotel de diseño minimalista en el distrito residencial de San Isidro. Dobles desde 140 dólares. Av. Pardo y Aliaga 300. Tel (51–1) 612 1000; www.nmlimahotel.com. Solís Dies: Bien ubicado en Miraflores, es una buena alternativa para quienes andan con menos dinero. Dobles desde 31 dólares, no incluye desayuno. Calle Porta 245. Tel (51–1) 793 5573. OJO CON... Un dólar equivale a 2,85 soles. De pollos y Asia "En Perú dicen que para que un pueblo adquiera esa categoría, tiene que tener al menos una pollería y un chifa. Sino, es sólo un caserío", dice Acurio. El chifa es comida china con sabores peruanos y que en Lima se encuentra casi en cada cuadra. El Salón Capón (Jirón Paruro 819), es un clásico. "A los aventureros les aconsejaría el pejesapo al vapor, un pescado extraordinario, y los bocaditos dim sum", señala Acurio. En las pollerías, Osterling prefiere el paisaje campestre de La Granja Azul (Carretera central km 11,5) y El Chalet Belga (Carretera central, km 40,5 Ricardo Palma). La comida nikkei, o japonesa, también es un infaltable. El Costanera 700 (Av. del Ejército 421, Miraflores) es el favorito del jet set local. Dulces locales A pesar de la fama de los suspiros limeños, los postres nunca han sido el fuerte nacional. "Nuestros postres se están perdiendo, y hay que cultivarlos un poco más", admite Gastón Acurio. La mayoría tiene influencia española, como el suspiro, que según explica Rafael Osterling no es otra cosa que una adaptación peruana del "mana", una lenta cocción que se hacía en los conventos con huevo, azúcar y leche. Sí es propio del Perú la mazamorra morada, un budín hecho a base de maíz morado, frutas confitadas, pasas, y almendras. ¿El postre favorito de Osterling? Los picarones bañados en chancaca. Y según asegura, nada mejor que comerlos en los restoranes de comida criolla y las pollerías. Amalia Torres.

COMMENTARY: THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW
Alan GarcíaPeru's Born-Again Free Marketeer
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
May 3, 2008; Page A9' (Wall Street Journal)

Lima,Peru

Knock on the door," a solider standing guard in front of Peru's Government Palace says when I tell him I have an interview with President Alan García. I gaze up at the massive wooden portal – the perfect entry for the palace's 6-foot-5-inch resident or even someone twice that size – and do as I'm told.

A small wicket in the middle of the big door swings open and I give my name. I am admitted and escorted through the famous mirrored "golden salon," modeled on a room at Versailles. At 8:30 on a Saturday morning, the palace is silent. The click of my high-heels on the marble floor echoes under the vaulted ceiling. We reach another smaller chamber; coffee is served.
Terry Shoffner
The Peruvian economy is doing well these days, but with the world's attention focused on an aspiring dictator in Venezuela, its success has gone relatively unnoticed outside the region. Thus I want to talk to Mr. García and he has agreed to talk to me: A clever and seasoned politician, legendary for his silver-tongued populism, he is now in the business of marketing his country to investors. And why not? With an average growth rate over the past six years of better than 6.2%, the story is a good one. And it is about much more than a boom in mining exports. Peru has blossomed because of competitiveness, something that could not have been imagined a decade ago.
Mr. García led Peru once before, from 1985-1990. That presidency ended in disaster. In July of his last year in office, when his successor Alberto Fujimori was sworn in, the monthly inflation rate was 63%.
Price controls had spawned long lines for food. The government had a fiscal deficit totaling a whopping 7.5% of GDP. The economy contracted 8.8% in 1988 and 12.2% in 1989. Meanwhile, Shining Path terrorists dominated the countryside, making life miserable for the peasant population, unattractive to foreign investors and impossible for tourism.
Mr. García left office in shame and, hounded by corruption charges, fled in 1992 to live in exile in Colombia. Upon his return nine years later, he lost a bid for the presidency against Alejandro Toledo.
In 2006, he ran again and won in a run-off against a hard-left populist who was promising to replicate Chávez-style government in Peru. His victory was owed in part to the many Peruvians who, despite bitter memories of his disastrous administration, held their noses and voted for him just to avoid the horror of chavismo. Then they braced themselves for life again under the man known as "crazy horse."
So far not only have their fears not materialized but something truly unexpected has happened instead: Mr. García now speaks the language of a born-again economic liberal and defends markets as a way to reduce poverty. Whether the conversion is authentic is a matter of much debate in Peru these days. What I can say for sure, after a 70-minute interview, is that he firmly grasps the principles behind the arguments he now professes to believe.
Peruvian growth is often assumed to be about the mining sector – copper, gold and the like. But Peruvians are discovering their comparative advantages in niche markets around the world in a host of other sectors, including manufacturing, apparel and agriculture. A visitor to Lima immediately appreciates vast improvements in services compared to even a half-decade ago.
How has all this come to pass? "I think the essential change is in the commercial economic model of Peru," he says. The country "has decided to insert itself in the global economy, open its borders to investment, lower tariffs [and] guarantee fiscal and monetary stability. I think this, sustained for more than 10 years now, is bearing fruit."
Mr. García also recognizes the fact that many of his neighbors are not courting investors, making his country a beneficiary of their bad attitudes. "Peru looks like the country [in the region] most favorable to modernization," generating a level of investment "that is extraordinary." The country has had "an important rate of growth in the past three years, from 6% annually to almost 8% and then 9%. We expect to maintain, this year, the highest growth rate and the lowest level of inflation in South America."
For a country defined by decades of poverty and violence, this borders on the miraculous. But what may be more amazing is that the region's most notorious left-wing populist of the 1980s now champions free enterprise. Even Colombian novelist Gabriel García Márquez never wrote such a surreal tale. I ask the president to explain his epiphany.
The question produces a burst of laughter that seems to contain at least a kernel of irritation, but if so it fades quickly. He immediately goes to the heart of the issue. "First, more than reading, one has to see the reality and this reality is what has changed." For the president, that reality is all about the birth of the microchip. "Twenty-five years ago the world was divided in two," he says "and what did not exist was the extraordinary revolution in communication and information, which is the basis of all the change in the world economy now and of the change in our ideas. The Internet, electronic money, the economic opening of trade without borders," this is what's driven the shift in thinking. "This new reality demands that we not oppose the wave of globalization but take advantage of it in favor of society."
More shocking for those who remember the old Alan García is his newly espoused faith in the private sector as an engine of human progress. "I have an enthusiastic and hopeful perspective that we are beginning a new economic phase of the economy, like in 1750 with the steam engine. We are beginning a totally different chapter in economics. The world is linked and there is a growing democratization through participation by consumers and producers.
"At the same time there is the process of individualization of decisions, communications that makes humanity more free. Just like when Cho En Lai was asked if he judged the French Revolution a success and he said, 'It's too early to tell,' I think we are in the first years of something that may take centuries to evaluate." Government's role, in Mr. García's opinion, is "to persuade the people – this is its role as a leader – to be open to all the possibilities of . . . investment and, with this, to decentralize economic activity and thereby create more employment."
Still, his critics in Lima say that he has yet to prove his mettle by pushing through the next phase of reforms. Businesses still toil under a massive regulatory and tax burden; and Peru particularly needs labor reform that will lower the cost of hiring and firing workers. This will require cuts in payroll taxes and in severance obligations of companies when workers are let go.
Mr. García agrees that labor regulation is a drag on businesses and has no trouble diagnosing the problem: "We no longer live in a closed economy with protection. It is an economy of competition and speed. And therefore the businesses are destined to be born, live and die because any company can enter a market and displace others. In this sense, businesses are condemned to instability. As a consequence we cannot continue with concepts that come from another time and another situation."
Instability, he says, is particularly a problem for services and low-tech manufacturing businesses that face stiff competition from around the globe. But he also notes that the problem makes life difficult for Peruvian workers. "We need a reform that formalizes the masses – some 70% of Peruvians workers – who work in the informal sector and have no rights, as well as the businesses which are not legal and don't pay taxes."
For decades politicians around the region have looked at different ways to reduce the size of the underground economy. Most see the answer as more law enforcement; Mr. García seems to favor incentives. Rather than hiring an army of tax and labor inspectors to force compliance, he recognizes that the rules of the game have to be changed. He says Peru has to lower the cost of being in the formal sector if it wants to "increase its internal saving capacity through the pension funds and increase its ability to offer health care to Peruvians." Without such changes, the country will be stuck with "informality," what the president calls "the slavery of the 21st century."
Opponents of labor reform, he says, include workers in the formal sector who want to protect their privileges enshrined in regulation, and businesses that dread the organizing power of legal workers. But Mr. García says that the 70% who don't have formal-sector jobs will be liberated from the slavery if the reform that he is working on is passed by the Peruvian Congress. It is a "pro-jobs" reform, he insists, more than a labor reform.
Meaningful labor reform would go a long way toward erasing his past sins, and maybe even secure his legacy. But much will depend on what happens to the inflation rate, which has been heading north of late. Poor Peruvians, particularly in the mountainous area of the country which favored his opponent in the run-off election, have been demonstrating in the streets against rising food prices. Mr. García blames this on rising global demand for rice, "the disastrous ethanol program" and the fact that the country grows no wheat and has to import it all from abroad.
Just to be provocative, I ponder aloud whether price controls wouldn't be a good way to help the poor. He snickers and then shoots back: "Price controls are my enemy." Instead, he says, the answer to rising prices is to increase the productive capacity of Peru. That's not a bad course of action, though it will take some time. What would be better is to let the "sol" appreciate. Regrettably, the central bank is loath to do that because it believes it will make exporters less competitive, a view that has led many a government into trouble.
President García wants the world to know that he is a born-again believer in the connection between liberty and human progress. And as a world-class orator, he has no trouble laying out the case. But Peruvians once bitten are thrice shy, and they are not so eager to bless his conversion. The key, it would seem, to ending the debate and rewriting the history books that will tell of his heroic leadership is to put his vision into action. No wonder all eyes are on this former populist's attempts to tackle the difficult issue of labor reform.
He certainly packs the optimism necessary for the job; he has no time for the doom-and-gloom set. "When they say that the world is threatened by immigration, poverty, destruction of the environment and concentration of monopolies, I laugh. I have complete faith in human intelligence and technology to overcome any obstacle, geographic or social."

WSJ Americas columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady says although the Peruvian economy is experiencing growth, it's not uniform throughout the country. She speaks with Kelsey Hubbard about the struggle between modernity and atavistic socialism. (May 2)

March 9, 2008
Downturn Tests the Fed’s Ability to Avert a Crisis
By VIKAS BAJAJ
In the last seven months, policy makers have cut interest rates, injected money into the banking system and approved a fiscal stimulus package in an effort to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Often, the moves seemed to work at first, only to be overtaken by more bad news.
The failure of any of the usual fiscal and monetary policy tools so far raises questions about what the Federal Reserve and federal government can do in the near term to counter the forces that have battered housing prices and pushed down the stock market and are now causing a hiring slowdown.
“There are times when there is only so much the Fed can do,” said Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of FusionIQ, an investment firm in New York. “It can smooth out the business cycle a little bit, but last I checked, we haven’t done away with the business cycle.”
One of the main problems now is a deepening crisis of confidence that is compounding the ill effects from the housing downturn. As lenders and businesses become more cautious about whom they lend to and hire, they are slowing an already weakened economy.
If the housing boom was a manifestation of irrational exuberance, some say it has swung too far in the other direction, to irrational despondency.
“Banks went from giving money away like drunken sailors to not lending to the most credit-worthy borrowers,” Mr. Ritholtz, who writes the popular economics blog The Big Picture, said.
The latest signs of panic in the markets came last week. Banks began calling in loans they had made to hedge funds, mortgage companies and others, forcing them to sell billions of bonds. The moves prompted concern about securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the large government-chartered buyers of mortgages that many investors believe have the implicit backing of the federal government.
When big investors are forced to quickly dump billions of dollars in securities, trading can seize up, especially when buyers are scarce, as they are now. Just a few weeks earlier, a similar bout of forced selling drove down the prices of municipal bonds issued by states and cities.
In mid-January, the Fed moved to arrest the crisis in the financial system after markets plunged around the world and a French bank announced a big trading loss; markets in the United States were closed because of a holiday. The Fed cut interest rates three-quarters of a point and cut them another half-point a week later at a scheduled meeting.
With the exception of a few days, the market rallied those two weeks, and investors even drove down mortgage interest rates, sending millions of homeowners shopping for new loans.
But the relief was short-lived. Mortgage interest rates headed back up almost immediately, and by early February the stock market was falling again after reports showed a drop in employment and a slackening in the service sector.
“The Fed rate cuts aren’t doing anything for my clients except confuse them,” Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in the Phoenix area, wrote in an e-mail message at the end of January.
Fed officials would say that mortgage rates would be higher still had they done nothing. But given the shortcomings of the response so far, the Fed and members of Congress are working on more aggressive tactics.
The Fed is expected to cut rates further when its policy-making committee meets next week. It will also increase the money it lends to banks in periodic auctions to $100 billion, from $30 billion.
Fed officials have been meeting with aides to Representative Barney Frank, Democrat from Massachusetts, who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and has argued for more government intervention. The Fed supports some of the ideas Mr. Frank has been discussing, including having onerous mortgages refinanced and guaranteed through the Federal Housing Administration. But the central bank, at least so far, opposes the purchase of troubled loans by the federal government, an idea suggested by Mr. Frank and other Democrats.
Much of the focus will remain on housing, because policy makers and analysts think banks and investors will not regain confidence until the real estate market stabilizes. Uncertainty about how far home prices will fall has made banks less willing to lend and consumers reluctant to buy.
Banks are also unwilling to lend because they are worried they will not be paid back. Nearly 7.9 percent of home loans were in foreclosure or past due at the end of last year, and most economists expect that more borrowers will encounter trouble.
Some lenders are also trying to preserve their capital because they expect to have more losses. Last week, Citibank said it would reduce its holdings of home loans by 20 percent.
“Lenders can’t lend in this environment because they fear they are not going to get paid back,” said Daniel Alpert, a managing director at Westwood Capital, an investment bank in New York. “And guys who own homes have no value left to hock.”
The interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages is back above 6 percent, still historically low, after falling below 5.5 percent in December. Banks are demanding bigger down payments and cutting off home equity lines of credit to borrowers, especially those who live in states where home prices are falling fastest.
Mr. Alpert and others see a parallel between the credit problems today in the United States and the economic crisis in Japan in the 1990s. In both cases, reckless lending and a bubble in real estate contributed to enormous losses and tightening of loans.
There are significant differences, however. American banks have been quick to recognize losses, and policy makers have moved to contain the damage and protect the broader economy. In Japan, many lenders did not write off bad loans and the central bank was much slower to respond. The 1990s is broadly seen as a “lost decade” for that country.
Mr. Alpert, who bought troubled loans from Japanese banks for pennies on the dollar, said that while American financial institutions are moving fast, policy makers should encourage or even force them to write down and restructure bad mortgages faster so they can get back to lending.
“If you fail to clean up the problem and take aggressive action, you are going to have years and years of stagnation as Japan did,” he said.
There are signs that the logjam in some markets is loosening as bargain hunters move in to take advantage of the turmoil. When enough investors step in to buy beaten-down securities, it can restore confidence and make banks willing to lend more freely.
In the municipal bond market, for instance, prices rose steadily last week as retail investors and mutual funds bought bonds that distressed hedge funds were selling at deep discounts, said Douglas A. Dachille, the chief executive of First Principles Capital Management, a firm that specializes in bonds. Prices on one index compiled by The Bond Buyer, a trade publication, rose 5.7 percent last week after falling 6.2 percent in the last week of February.
That “problem was solved,” Mr. Dachille said Friday. “By the end of this week, the muni market is functioning well again.”